Musicmetric predicts Brit winners through social media and filesharing profiling

Can you bet on The Brits?

Musicmetric uses social media profiling to bet on the publicly voted for Brits.

Betting on the The Brits is always a bit hit and miss – otherwise the bookies wouldn’t run such successful books on it each year. At Musicmetric, we’re challenging the bookies in a scientific calculation of who might realistically win the categories voted for by the public.

Nobody can guess which way the music industry will vote, so we’re not likely to shell out hard earned cash without foundation. For two of the three categories voted by the public, we’ve taken a look at how their fan bases have grown over the last three months, added that to filesharing location data and come up with our predictions.

Best British Band
The Best British band category has always been hotly contested and with Arctic Monkeys, Chase & Status, Kasabian, Elbow and Coldplay – never hotter than this year.

The graphs below show the nominees and the rate of fan growth over the last three months.


Key:

Purple: Coldplay
Green: Arctic Monkeya
Blue: Kasabian
Orange: Chase & Status
Pink: Elbow

The first graph shows, that in fan terms, Coldplay dwarfs the others as well as including some significant spikes showing in numbers of fans joining their various social media profiles per day.

The second graph is a more even playing field taking the other three to one side. Arctic Monkeys take second place – so could be a contender with Kasabian on their heels (winners last year – so unlikely!). 

 

Key:

Green: Arctic Monkeys
Blue: Kasabian
Orange: Chase & Status
Pink: Elbow

Chase & Status and Elbow are not really in the running as far as our stats are concerned. Because the worldwide web is… worldwide – it’s also worth taking a look at filesharing locations.

The filesharing data for Coldplay, shows that the UK is only the third most significant country for filesharing activity, while filsharing for Arctic Monkeys is predominantly within the UK.

That said, this graph shows that the activity for Coldplay is still four times as high as filesharing for Arctic Monkeys.  

Based on this and the fan info we collected, our prediction for Best British Group is Coldplay.  

Best British Breakthrough Act

The best breakthrough act, is potentially easier to analyse. Their fanbases are generally still overwhelmingly British, although Jessie J is beginning to break The States.
The graph shows the tussle at the top for fans between Jessie J and Ed Sheerhan, with Jessie just having the edge – particularly notable over the last month. Bagging her second number one yesterday could help – or it could edge her out of what the public considers to be a ‘breakthrough act’.


Key:

Orange: Jessie J
Purple: Ed Sheerhan
Blue: Emeli Sandé
Green: Anna Calvi

Since she is also confirmed as top of this list with regards to number of UK filesharers,  we’re going with the stats, so our pick for British Breakthrough is Jessie J.

In theory, the Musicmetric stats should be in line with the numbers on fans online – queued up to vote online – since they are likely to be prompted to by one or other of the artists social media profiles.  

All will be revealed on 21st February. We will be keeping an eye on our bets in the run up.

About Musicmetric

Musicmetric tracks real time online trends and fan interaction for over 600 thousand artists, across social media, file sharing networks, blogs, reviews and news sources.
Musicmetric combines this data together with information covering gig dates, release schedules, sales, radio play and streaming activity to give a full contextual view of an artist. The artist dashboards are used across the industry by artists, managers, independent and major record labels, promotion companies and broadcasters. Visit www.musicmetric.com for more details and to get free overview stats and ranking for any artist.

MUG5

Chris "MUG5" Maguire is a multimedia futurist that specializes in all things multimedia. From Record Production to Film Making Chris has worked with hi-end clients the world over. Chris is the Editor in Chief of both KingLoaf.com & Altsounds.com